Solar Storms

I was surprised to learn that Michigan is at above-average risk

Michigan is not as susceptible as some states to the most common natural disasters; tornadoes, hurricanes, hail, etc. But recently I’ve learned of one possibility I had not been aware of; we could be impacted by an earth quake along the New Madrid Fault Line. And, while I’ve given a lot of thought to Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP), I did not know that due to higher Ground Conductivity, and our “Magnetic Latitude,” Michigan, and other states bordering the Great Lakes are more likely to suffer damage from solar storms.

Weighted by population, the highest risk of storm-induced power outages in the US is along the Atlantic corridor between Washington D.C. and New York City. This takes into account risk factors such as magnetic latitude, distance to the coast, ground conductivity and transmission grid properties. Other high-risk regions are the Midwest states, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, and regions along the Gulf Coast.

Lloyds of London

The threat isn’t so much to power generation, but to power distribution. This brings to mind a problem I see evidence of in several areas; the feds, in attempts to “stimulate” the economy, going back to at least the Great Depression, spend money (printed money, fiat currency, debt to be borne by future generations) on huge public works projects, employing large numbers of people. Take your pick; dams, the interstate highway system, bridges, railroads, or electrical grid infrastructure. The problem is that we do not generate enough disposable income in an ongoing way, to maintain these huge assets from the tax base; and hence, they almost inevitably fall into disrepair. Such is the state of our electrical distribution system. But getting back to the point, the distribution system is the weak link in the chain.

A Carrington-level, extreme geomagnetic storm is almost inevitable in the future. While the probability of an extreme storm occurring is relatively low at any given time, it is almost inevitable that one will occur eventually. Historical auroral records suggest a return period of 50 years for Quebec-level storms and 150 years for very extreme storms, such as the Carrington Event that occurred 154 years ago.

Lloyds of London

The coasts, east and gulf, are particularly susceptible, as is the upper mid-west, and again, those states bordering the Great Lakes; that’d be us. And, living rurally, our service would be among the last to be restored; power is restored based largely on population density, the less dense, the lower you are on the priority list.

The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years. The duration of outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers. If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months. The total economic cost for such a scenario is estimated at $0.6-2.6 trillion USD.

Lloyds of London

Being without power in a region for 1-2 years…the first thing that comes to mind is that those regions would be largely depopulated, and quickly, assuming there were places with electricity to move to. And apparently there would be. Business would grind to a halt in affected areas. For those of us who stay, it would be a return to the 19th century.

I’ll let you read more for yourself, in a 21 page pdf from Lloyds of London, the insurance company. Insurance companies are typically conservative; they don’t want to lose money, and therefore they must make accurate assessments of risk to stay in business.

The quotes above are all from “Solar Storm Risk to the North American Electric Grid,” by Lloyds.

Space Weather Prediction Center

NASA Science

Be Prepared